🔐 What’s Happening in Hungary’s Crypto Landscape – And How Will It Affect Ransomware Attacks?
On July 1, 2025, a legislative amendment came into force in Hungary that fundamentally changes the domestic regulation of cryptocurrencies – and may indirectly have a significant impact on the ransomware ecosystem. On page 36, section 28 of the omnibus bill titled “Amendments to Certain Laws to Improve Hungary’s Competitiveness” (T/11922/13), two new criminal offenses are introduced into the Hungarian Criminal Code, criminalizing the use and operation of unlicensed crypto exchanges. As a result of this change, there is currently no legal way in Hungary to buy, sell, or pay with cryptocurrency.
This drastic shift affects not only private individuals and legal crypto investors, but may directly influence the operations of ransomware groups. But how exactly? And what are the potential consequences for Hungarian companies, institutions, or even the attackers themselves?
Why is crypto so important to the ransomware ecosystem?
One of the cornerstones of most modern ransomware groups is the payment of ransom through cryptocurrency. The reasons for this include:
Pseudonymity: transactions are difficult to trace.
Global access: no bank account or international transfer is needed – just a wallet.
Automation: many groups run their own payment portals.
Thus, it’s crucial for them that victims are able to pay in crypto – especially with decentralized, privacy-focused coins (e.g., Monero, Zcash).
The essence of Hungary’s crypto ban
Under the new Criminal Code paragraphs effective from July 2025:
It is a criminal offense to use an unlicensed crypto exchange.
Operating an unlicensed exchange is also punishable.
Penalties range from 2 to 8 years of imprisonment, depending on the value of the transactions.
Currently, there are no licensed crypto exchanges in Hungary, as the implementing regulations have not yet been issued.
As a result: buying, selling, or paying with cryptocurrency has become practically illegal or at least legally uncertain.
How does this affect Ransomware Groups?
1. Hindering ransom payments
The most obvious consequence is that Hungarian victims will have a much harder time paying ransoms. Since there is no legal way to acquire crypto, a compromised company could only pay if:
It has an account with a foreign exchange,
It obtains the crypto informally through contacts,
It takes the legal risk of buying via an unlicensed exchange.
This could lead to a decline in ransom payment willingness, making Hungary a less attractive target for ransomware groups.
2. More pressure on Victims – More aggressive extortion
On the other hand, there’s a flip side: attackers know that the legal restrictions put victims in a legal trap. This could lead to:
Victims fearing to report incidents due to the potential illegality of ransom payments.
Attackers applying more aggressive extortion tactics – threatening with public leaks and reputational damage.
Attackers assuming that any payment made will be done silently – no law enforcement involvement.
Paradoxically, criminalizing ransom payments may increase short-term attack success, especially if organizations lack the capacity or courage to seek help.
3. Operational shifts at the international level
Ransomware operations are not bound by national borders, but attackers optimize based on local legal environments. Due to the Hungarian regulation, we can expect:
Crypto flows to be redirected to countries with more lenient regulation.
Hungarian intermediaries and “money mules” to be phased out.
Fewer Hungarian IPs and domains targeted, unless the payoff justifies the risk.
However, this does not mean Hungarian targets will disappear entirely – just that attackers will raise the bar for launching an attack.
Strategic Implications
1. Decline in crypto payments ≠ fewer attacks
Although the possibility of ransom payment is limited, this doesn’t necessarily mean fewer attacks. We may see:
Groups testing the waters – observing how Hungarian victims react.
A shift toward pure data theft and leak-only strategies.
New attack methodologies, such as selling stolen data to third parties, or combining digital with physical threats.
2. Legal uncertainty = increased risk
The current situation is also legally unstable:
No detailed implementation guidelines exist.
It’s unclear how courts would treat a company that paid under duress.
It’s not certain whether using a foreign exchange is also punishable if initiated by a Hungarian party.
This breeds fear, mistrust, and inaction – a perfect environment for extortion.
Summary – What’s next?
Effect Outcome Legal crypto exchange usage banned Fewer ransom payments Legal uncertainty More hidden ransom deals No licensed crypto providers Every exchange potentially a crime Ransomware group reactions Testing, more pressure Long-term impact Shift in attack types and targeting focus
Final Thoughts
Hungary’s crypto legislation is a uniquely strict move within the European Union – and although not ransomware-specific, it clearly affects the ransomware ecosystem as well. In the long run, it may deter attackers, but in the short term it may generate even more risk – especially in environments where companies are unwilling or unable to respond transparently.
Fighting ransomware is not merely a technical challenge – it’s a network of legal, economic, and psychological factors. Hungary’s crypto ban has opened a new chapter in this battle – but whether it proves to be a deterrent or a misfire remains to be seen.
